For India, South Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh to make the T20 World Cup semi-finals, what do they need to do?

Currently, India and South Africa appear to be in the best position of all, but there is still room for things to change in the future.

A five-run win by India over Bangladesh in Adelaide has improved their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals in the men’s T20 World Cup, while Bangladesh and Pakistan’s chances have been significantly reduced.

In this article, we will take a look at the chances of each of the four teams remaining in Group 2 that have a realistic chance of finishing in the top two.

India

Played: 4

Points: 6

NRR: 0.730

Rem match: vs Zim

In the event that India beat Zimbabwe, or if the game is rained out, then they will be in the semi-finals since neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh will be able to get seven points. There is, however, a possibility that India will lose their last game while Pakistan will win both their remaining games, and South Africa will lose to Pakistan while beating the Netherlands, and thus, India could finish second to Pakistan (on points) and first to South Africa (on net run-rate).

South Africa

Played: 3

Points: 5

NRR: 2.772

Rem match: vs Pak, Ned

In their kitty, South Africa has five points from three games, a superb NRR of 2.772, and two more games to play on their way to sealing a place in the semi-finals, putting them in a fantastic position to take the title. There is a possibility that they could finish among the top two teams if they win one of these two games and earn seven points. 

As a result, if they lose both matches, they will no longer be in contention for the title until the Bangladesh vs Pakistan match is canceled, in which case both of these teams finish the season with five points each.

Bangladesh

Played: 4

Points: 4

NRR: -1.276

Rem match: vs Pak

The only thing Bangladesh needs to do is win their last match, and then hope that South Africa will only be able to score one point from their remaining two games. 

This means that both Bangladesh and South Africa will end up level on six points for the round, but Bangladesh will finish ahead of South Africa despite the fact that their NRR will be lower since Bangladesh will have three wins while South Africa will only have two. 

(In the event that teams are tied on points, the number of wins is the first tie-breaker, followed by the number of wins plus NRR.)

Bangladesh will almost certainly be knocked out by South Africa if the South Africans move up to seven points by the end of the match, due to their NRR being too far behind that of India. 

Hence, in order for Bangladesh’s NRR to surpass India’s, the margin between both results – Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India – must be greater than 150 runs in order to go past India’s NRR.

Pakistan

Played: 3

Points: 2

NRR: 0.765

Rem match: vs SA, Ban

There is a possibility that Pakistan will make it through with six points if they can finish ahead of at least one of the two teams from India and South Africa. In the event that South Africa receives only one point from its match against Netherlands, they can still finish ahead of Pakistan as they will have more wins than South Africa.

The better NRR Pakistan has at the moment, which is 0.765, means that if India loses to Zimbabwe, they could also move past India in the standings. 

It is likely that Pakistan will finish ahead of India even if they score 160 and win both their last two matches by just one run, as they will win by eight or more runs (after scoring 160) if Zimbabwe thrashes them by eight or more runs (after scoring 160). 

There is no doubt, however, that if India manages to get even one point from their last game, then they will be beyond Pakistan’s reach.

Zimbabwe

Played: 4

Points: 3

NRR: -0.313

Rem match: vs Ind

There is a possibility that Zimbabwe can get to five points, which would mean that they could be tied on points with Pakistan, Bangladesh (if their game is washed out), and South Africa (if both games are lost), but Zimbabwe’s NRR is too low to make them a serious contender. 

It would be difficult for them to surpass their NRR even if they beat India by 50 runs, as they will need South Africa to lose their two remaining matches by an aggregate of 80 runs in order to do so.