PAK vs SL 5th ODI Match Prediction: Can Sri Lanka Seal a Final Spot in Lahore?
Pakistan have already booked their place in the tri-series final, but Tuesday’s game at Gaddafi Stadium still matters enormously. Sri Lanka can join them in the October 31 final with a win over the hosts, while Pakistan will want to make it four wins from four and carry unbeaten momentum into the title match. This PAK vs SL 5th ODI prediction looks at the match details, the qualification picture, team form, the Lahore pitch report, probable playing XIs and our pick.
PAK vs SL 5th ODI match details and live streaming
| Match | Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, 5th ODI |
| Series | Pakistan ODI Tri-Series (Pakistan, Sri Lanka, England) |
| Date | Tuesday, October 27 |
| Time | 1:30 PM IST (1:00 PM PKT) |
| Venue | Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore |
| TV in Pakistan | PTV Sports |
| Streaming | FanCode in India; Tamasha, Tapmad and PCB Live in Pakistan |
Tri-series points table and qualification scenarios
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | Points | Net run rate |
| Pakistan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | +0.949 |
| Sri Lanka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.348 |
| England | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -0.733 |
Pakistan are through to the final after their one-wicket win over England in Lahore on October 25. Sri Lanka need just one win from their two remaining league games, against Pakistan on October 27 and England on October 29, to seal the second final spot. Even if Sri Lanka lose both, they could still qualify depending on net run rate, but a win on Tuesday removes all doubt. England, winless from three games, need to beat Sri Lanka on October 29 and hope the net run rate swings their way.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka series so far
The two sides have already met once in this series. In the tri-series opener at Rawalpindi on October 18, Pakistan scored 305 all out, with Salman Ali Agha making 107 from 90 balls, and then bowled Sri Lanka out for 268 to win by 37 runs. Pavan Rathnayake made 79 for Sri Lanka in that game, and he has only got better since.
Sri Lanka’s next game was one of the great ODI chases. England posted 429 for 4, with Harry Brook smashing 202 from 116 balls, but Sri Lanka chased it down at 430 for 8 with one ball to spare. Rathnayake scored 130 from 106 balls, Avishka Fernando made 97, Dasun Shanaka made 97, and Janith Liyanage finished unbeaten on 61 from 27 balls, winning the game with a six. That win is why Sri Lanka arrive in Lahore full of belief.
Pakistan, meanwhile, stayed perfect in their last game, beating England by one wicket in Lahore. England made 241, with Ben Duckett scoring 105, but Shadab Khan’s unbeaten 113 from 96 balls, batting at number eight, dragged Pakistan home at 243 for 9. Shaheen Shah Afridi took 4 for 46 in that game, and the win confirmed Pakistan’s place in the final.
Pakistan team preview: unbeaten, but the middle order has questions
Pakistan’s batting has found different heroes in every game. Salman Ali Agha’s hundred won the opener, Hasan Nawaz’s 79 and Arafat Minhas’ 59 set up the win over England in Rawalpindi, and Shadab Khan’s hundred rescued the Lahore game from 154 for 9. Babar Azam has made starts without yet producing a big hundred in the series, and that remains the one thing Pakistan fans are waiting for.
With the ball, Shaheen Shah Afridi leads the attack, with Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf providing pace and Abrar Ahmed and Sufyan Moqim offering spin options. Arafat Minhas, who took 6 for 40 against England in Rawalpindi to go with his fifty, has been the surprise package of the series.
Pakistan squad: Ghazi Ghori, Saad Baig, Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Hasan Nawaz, Arafat Minhas, Faheem Ashraf, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha, Shadab Khan, Abrar Ahmed, Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, Razaullah, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Sufyan Moqim.
Sri Lanka team preview: the 430 chase changed this team
Sri Lanka lost the opener, but the 430 chase against England has changed how this side is seen. Rathnayake is now the form batter of the series, with 79 and 130 in his two games, and the middle order of Fernando, Shanaka and Liyanage all showed they can finish a huge chase under pressure. Captain Kusal Mendis holds the batting together, and Kamindu Mendis adds another left-handed option.
With the ball, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka and Dushmantha Chameera give Sri Lanka a mix of spin and pace. Their challenge on Tuesday is to stop Pakistan’s batting from posting another 300-plus total, because Sri Lanka’s own batting has already shown it can chase big targets.
Sri Lanka squad: Kusal Mendis (captain), Lahiru Udara, Avishka Fernando, Kamil Mishara, Pavan Rathnayake, Dasun Shanaka, Janith Liyanage, Kamindu Mendis, Sahan Arachchige, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka, Dunith Wellalage, Dushmantha Chameera, Eshan Malinga, Maheesh Theekshana, Sachindu Colombage.
Gaddafi Stadium Lahore pitch report and weather
Gaddafi Stadium has traditionally been a high-scoring ODI ground. Across around 90 ODIs here, teams batting first have won 46 times and chasing sides 42 times, with an average first-innings score of around 251 and an average second-innings score of around 217. The highest team total at the ground is Pakistan’s 375 for 3 against Zimbabwe, and the highest successful chase is Australia’s 356 for 5 against England.
That history comes with a warning from the last game here, though. On October 25, England were bowled out for 241 and Pakistan only just got home at 243 for 9, so this surface does not always produce a run-fest. The new ball can swing early for Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah, spinners come into the game in the middle overs, and dew under lights in the second innings can make the ball harder to grip. A score of 290 to 310 should be competitive, and anything above 320 will be very hard to chase.
The Lahore forecast for Tuesday points to a warm day at around 23 degrees with a small chance of rain, so a full game is expected.
PAK vs SL 5th ODI probable playing XIs
Pakistan probable XI: Fakhar Zaman, Saim Ayub, Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha, Hasan Nawaz, Shadab Khan, Faheem Ashraf, Arafat Minhas, Shaheen Shah Afridi (c), Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf.
Sri Lanka probable XI: Avishka Fernando, Lahiru Udara, Kusal Mendis (c, wk), Pavan Rathnayake, Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Janith Liyanage, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Asitha Fernando, Dushmantha Chameera.
Key battles that will decide the Lahore ODI
- Shaheen Shah Afridi vs Avishka Fernando: Shaheen’s new-ball swing against Fernando’s attacking start will set the tone for Sri Lanka’s innings.
- Pavan Rathnayake vs Pakistan’s spinners: Rathnayake has scored 209 runs in two games in this series. If Pakistan’s spinners can slow him down, Sri Lanka’s middle order loses its form player.
- Babar Azam vs Maheesh Theekshana: Babar is due a big score in this series, and Theekshana’s mystery spin in the middle overs is Sri Lanka’s best weapon against him.
- Shadab Khan vs Dasun Shanaka: Both men can change a game with bat and ball. Shadab’s hundred won Pakistan’s last game; Shanaka’s 97 nearly won Sri Lanka’s chase against England.
PAK vs SL 5th ODI prediction: who will win?
Sri Lanka are dangerous right now. The 430 chase was not a fluke, Rathnayake is in the form of his life, and a win on Tuesday sends them straight into the final. Pakistan, though, have already won this fixture once in the series, have won all three of their games, and have won nine of the last ten ODIs between these two sides.
Home conditions, an unbeaten run and a bowling attack that has defended totals and restricted sides in Lahore all point the same way. Sri Lanka will push Pakistan close again, and a Sri Lanka win would surprise nobody after Rawalpindi, but the hosts should have just enough.
Prediction: Pakistan to win the 5th ODI and make it four wins from four. Sri Lanka would then need to beat England on October 29 to reach the final, which remains very much in their hands.
PAK vs SL 5th ODI FAQs
When is the PAK vs SL 5th ODI?
Tuesday, October 27, at 1:30 PM IST (1:00 PM PKT) at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore.
What happens if Sri Lanka win?
Sri Lanka will seal second place and qualify for the tri-series final against Pakistan on October 31.
What is the head-to-head record between Pakistan and Sri Lanka in ODIs?
Pakistan have won nine of the last ten ODIs between the two sides, including the tri-series opener by 37 runs.
Who is Pakistan’s captain in the tri-series?
Shaheen Shah Afridi is leading Pakistan in the tri-series, with Salman Ali Agha among the senior batters in the side.