Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Tri-Series Final Match Prediction: Who Will Lift the Trophy at Lahore?

Pakistan and Sri Lanka meet in the final of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026 at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Four days ago, Sri Lanka bowled Pakistan out for just 110 and won by eight wickets at this same venue — so this final is no formality for the hosts, even though Pakistan won three of their four league games and finished top of the table. This Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final match prediction looks at the match details, the road to the final, team form, the Lahore pitch, probable playing XIs, key battles and our pick.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final match details and live streaming

Match	Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, Final, Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Date	Saturday, October 31, 2026
Time	1:30 PM IST (1:00 PM PKT, toss 12:30 PM PKT)
Venue	Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
Format	One-day international, 50 overs
TV and streaming	Pakistan: PTV Sports, Tapmad, Tamasha and PCB Live; India: Sony Sports Network on TV (streaming listings have varied across the series, so check SonyLIV and FanCode on match day); United Kingdom: Sky Sports; North America: Willow TV; Sri Lanka: Peo TV, Siyatha TV and Dialog

Tri-series points table: how Pakistan and Sri Lanka reached the final

Each team played the other two sides twice in the league stage, and the top two teams qualified for the final. Pakistan finished first with three wins from four games, Sri Lanka second with two wins, and England third with one win — so England, despite their 55-run win over Sri Lanka in the last league game, are out.

Team	Played	Won	Lost	Points
Pakistan	4	3	1	6
Sri Lanka	4	2	2	4
England	4	1	3	2

Pakistan’s road to the final began with a 37-run win over Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on October 18, when Salman Ali Agha scored 107 in Pakistan’s 305 and Sri Lanka replied with 268. They then beat England by 87 runs at Rawalpindi, with Hasan Nawaz scoring 79 and Arafat Minhas taking 6 for 40, and sealed their final spot with a dramatic one-wicket win over England at Lahore on October 25, when Shadab Khan’s unbeaten 113 rescued a chase of 242. Their only defeat came in the last league game that mattered least to them — but it mattered enormously to Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka’s road was the opposite: a 37-run loss to Pakistan, then the famous chase at Rawalpindi on October 22, when they hunted down England’s 429 for 4 with two wickets and one ball to spare, Pavan Rathnayake scoring 130 and Janith Liyanage finishing it with a six. Then came the statement win at Lahore on October 27: Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 as Pakistan collapsed to 110 all out in 25.3 overs, and Kamindu Mendis finished unbeaten on 62 as Sri Lanka won by eight wickets with 191 balls remaining. Their 55-run defeat to England on October 29, when Ben Duckett scored 167 in England’s 386 for 5, did not change the final pairing — but it did show that this Sri Lankan attack can leak runs.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka head to head in this tri-series

The two sides are level at one win each in this series, and the contrast between the two games could hardly be sharper. In the opener, Pakistan’s 305 proved more than enough. In the rematch, Pakistan’s top order had no answer to Madushanka’s left-arm swing and the match was effectively over inside 26 overs. The final, therefore, will be decided by which version of Pakistan’s batting turns up — and by whether Sri Lanka’s bowlers can reproduce the Lahore performance of October 27 rather than the Lahore performance of October 29.

Pakistan team preview and probable playing XI for the tri-series final

Pakistan’s strength in this tournament has been their ability to win in different ways: a century from Salman Ali Agha, a six-wicket haul from Arafat Minhas, and a rescue act from Shadab Khan. Head coach Mike Hesson has publicly backed his senior batters to stand up in the final, and the return to a full house at Gaddafi Stadium should help. The worry is the top order: Fakhar Zaman and the openers must survive Madushanka’s opening spell, because the middle order cannot keep rescuing collapses. One expected change from the 110 all out is at the top, where Sahibzada Farhan, called up as a specialist opener during the series, is in contention to start.

Pakistan squad: Shaheen Shah Afridi (captain), Abrar Ahmed, Salman Ali Agha, Faheem Ashraf, Babar Azam, Saad Baig (wicketkeeper), Ghazi Ghori (wicketkeeper), Shadab Khan, Razaullah Mashwani, Arafat Minhas, Hasan Nawaz, Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, Fakhar Zaman, Sahibzada Farhan, Maaz Sadaqat.

Pakistan probable XI: Fakhar Zaman, Sahibzada Farhan, Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha, Hasan Nawaz, Shadab Khan, Faheem Ashraf, Arafat Minhas, Shaheen Shah Afridi (captain), Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf.

Sri Lanka team preview and probable playing XI for the tri-series final

Sri Lanka arrive with the psychological edge of the 8-wicket win, a batting line-up in form — Rathnayake has been the tournament’s standout batter, Kusal Mendis scored 89 against England, and Kamindu Mendis finished the Lahore win unbeaten — and a pace attack that has already dismantled Pakistan once. Their problem is consistency with the ball: the same attack conceded 386 to England two days later, and Eshan Malinga went for 101 in that game. Expect Sri Lanka to stick with the XI that bowled Pakistan out for 110, with Madushanka, Asitha Fernando, Malinga and Dunith Wellalage sharing the pace and spin duties around Maheesh Theekshana.

Sri Lanka squad: Kusal Mendis (captain, wicketkeeper), Sahan Arachchige, Dushmantha Chameera, Sachindu Colombage, Avishka Fernando, Asitha Fernando, Janith Liyanage, Dilshan Madushanka, Eshan Malinga, Kamindu Mendis, Kamil Mishara (wicketkeeper), Lahiru Udara, Pavan Rathnayake, Dasun Shanaka, Maheesh Theekshana, Dunith Wellalage.

Sri Lanka probable XI: Avishka Fernando, Kusal Mendis (captain, wicketkeeper), Pavan Rathnayake, Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Janith Liyanage, Dunith Wellalage, Sahan Arachchige, Maheesh Theekshana, Dilshan Madushanka, Asitha Fernando.

Gaddafi Stadium Lahore pitch report for the tri-series final

Gaddafi Stadium has produced three very different games in this series, which tells its own story. On October 25, England’s 241 was chased down with one wicket in hand; on October 27, Pakistan were bowled out for 110 and Sri Lanka cruised home; on October 29, England posted 386 for 5 and still won by only 55 runs. The surface is generally good for batting, the boundaries are not huge, and dew under lights in the evening tends to help the chasing side. A first-innings total around 280 to 300 should be competitive, but as the 430 chase at Rawalpindi proved, no total in this series has felt safe. The captain winning the toss will have a genuine decision: bat first and set a target, or chase under lights with dew around. Weather in Lahore on match day is expected to be clear, around 23 degrees, with no rain in the forecast.

Key battles that will decide the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka final

• Dilshan Madushanka vs Pakistan’s top order: Madushanka’s 5 for 34 decided the last meeting. If Fakhar Zaman and Farhan survive his opening spell, Pakistan’s middle order can take control.
• Pavan Rathnayake vs Arafat Minhas: Rathnayake is the tournament’s form batter; Minhas, with 8 wickets including 6 for 40 against England, is Pakistan’s strike spinner in the middle overs.
• Babar Azam and Salman Ali Agha vs Maheesh Theekshana: Pakistan’s senior batters must anchor the innings against Sri Lanka’s most reliable spinner.
• Shadab Khan vs Sri Lanka’s middle order: Shadab’s unbeaten 113 against England showed his match-winning ability with the bat, and his leg-spin will test a Sri Lankan middle order that has wobbled under pressure.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final prediction: our pick

This is a genuinely hard final to call, and anyone pretending otherwise has ignored October 27. Sri Lanka have the recent win, the form batter in Rathnayake, and the bowler — Madushanka — who has already broken Pakistan’s batting once. But finals reward the more consistent team across the tournament, and that team is Pakistan: three wins from four, a settled bowling attack led by Shaheen Shah Afridi, and home support at a ground where they have already won a thriller in this series. The deciding factor should be Pakistan’s response to the 110 collapse — a proud batting line-up rarely produces two such performances in a row, and Hesson’s backing of his senior players suggests a focused, disciplined approach rather than panic.

Our prediction: Pakistan to win the tri-series final and lift the trophy, most likely by defending a total or chasing with wickets in hand — provided the top order survives the first ten overs. If Pakistan lose three wickets in the powerplay again, Sri Lanka will win, and win comfortably.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final FAQs

When is the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka tri-series final?

Saturday, October 31, 2026, at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, starting at 1:30 PM IST (1:00 PM PKT, toss 12:30 PM PKT).

Who reached the tri-series final?

Pakistan finished first with 6 points and Sri Lanka second with 4 points; England finished third with 2 points and were eliminated.

What happened when Pakistan and Sri Lanka last met?

On October 27 at Lahore, Sri Lanka bowled Pakistan out for 110 and won by eight wickets, with Kamindu Mendis unbeaten on 62. Pakistan had won the first meeting by 37 runs at Rawalpindi on October 18.

Where can I watch the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka final live?

In Pakistan on PTV Sports and via Tapmad, Tamasha and PCB Live; in India on the Sony Sports Network, with streaming options to be confirmed on match day; in the United Kingdom on Sky Sports; in North America on Willow TV; and in Sri Lanka on Peo TV, Siyatha TV and Dialog.

For the earlier games in this series, read our Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 5th ODI result, our Sri Lanka vs England 6th ODI result and our Pakistan vs England 4th ODI result.