SA vs AUS 3rd Test Match Prediction: Who Wins the Newlands Decider?

The series is level at 1-1, the trophy is on the line, and Newlands is the stage. South Africa and Australia meet in the third and deciding Test at Cape Town from Tuesday, October 27, after two wildly different Tests: a 214-run Australian win in Durban and an innings-and-31-run South African win in Gqeberha. This SA vs AUS 3rd Test prediction looks at the match details, the World Test Championship picture, team news, the Newlands pitch report, probable playing XIs and our pick for the decider.

SA vs AUS 3rd Test match details and live streaming

Match	South Africa vs Australia, 3rd Test
Series	Australia tour of South Africa, three-match Test series (ICC World Test Championship 2025-27)
Dates	Tuesday, October 27 to Saturday, October 31
Start time	10:30 AM SAST (2:00 PM IST) each day
Venue	Newlands Cricket Ground, Cape Town
Series score	Level 1-1
Streaming in India	FanCode
Broadcast	SuperSport in South Africa; Fox Cricket and Kayo in Australia

How the series got to 1-1

Australia struck first in Durban, winning the opening Test by 214 runs. South Africa’s response in Gqeberha was emphatic. In the second Test at Gqeberha, South Africa recovered from 110 for 6 to post 425 for 9 declared, thanks to captain Temba Bavuma’s career-best 179 from 334 balls, Marco Jansen’s 85 and Simon Harmer’s 82 in a 183-run eighth-wicket stand.

Australia were then bowled out for 99 in their first innings, with Steve Smith top-scoring on 28, Jansen taking 5 for 33, Kagiso Rabada taking 2 for 33 and Wiaan Mulder taking 2 for 14. Forced to follow on, Australia made 295 in their second innings, with Travis Head scoring 121, nightwatchman Scott Boland making a Test-best 40 from 166 balls, Marnus Labuschagne scoring 39 and Alex Carey 37 not out, but Rabada’s 4 for 77, Mulder’s 3 for 64 and Harmer’s 2 for 93 sealed an innings-and-31-run win. It was South Africa’s first innings win over Australia in this series, and it levelled the contest with everything to play for at Newlands.

World Test Championship picture after two Tests

Every point in this decider matters in the 2025-27 World Test Championship. After the second Test, Australia still led the table at 75.00 percent, with South Africa third at 66.67 percent and closing on second-placed New Zealand. A series win at Newlands would strengthen the winner’s grip on a final spot, while defeat would leave the loser chasing the pack for the rest of the cycle.

South Africa team news: Nortje out, no replacement called up

South Africa’s only squad change for the decider is a forced one. Fast bowler Anrich Nortje has been ruled out with a groin injury after bowling only 3.3 overs in Australia’s first innings at Gqeberha, and Cricket South Africa have not called up a replacement. That leaves Corbin Bosch, Gerald Coetzee and Dane Paterson as the options to fill the third seamer’s spot, if South Africa stick with a four-man pace attack.

The rest of the group is unchanged, which tells its own story. Bavuma’s 179 made him the form batter of the series, Ryan Rickelton’s move to wicketkeeper worked well in Gqeberha, and Rabada’s return from a long injury layoff gave the attack its cutting edge again. Keshav Maharaj sat out the second Test as Harmer played as the lone spinner, so the selectors must decide whether Newlands calls for one spinner or two.

South Africa squad: Temba Bavuma (captain), Marques Ackerman, David Bedingham, Corbin Bosch, Matthew Breetzke, Gerald Coetzee, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Wiaan Mulder, Senuran Muthusamy, Dane Paterson, Kagiso Rabada, Ryan Rickelton, Kyle Verreynne.

Australia team news: Green and Inglis fit again

Australia have welcome news on the fitness front. Cameron Green, who missed time with an abdominal strain, and Josh Inglis, who broke a finger, are both back at full fitness and available for selection. Steve Smith, who battled a stiff neck through the Gqeberha Test, is expected to be fit to play at Newlands.

Captain Pat Cummins has said Australia will rely on the players already on the ground in South Africa, with no additional squad changes. That means the tourists must find answers from within after being bowled out for 99 and then beaten by an innings. Head’s second-innings hundred and Boland’s stubborn 40 as nightwatchman showed fight, but Australia’s top order needs a far better first-innings performance at Newlands.

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (captain), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Cameron Green, Sam Harper, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Nic Maddinson, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster.

Newlands Cape Town pitch report and weather

Newlands is one of world cricket’s most beautiful grounds, set beneath Table Mountain, and it is also one of South Africa’s most result-friendly Test venues. Very few Tests here end in draws. The pitch traditionally offers seam movement and bounce for fast bowlers early in the game, then flattens out and becomes better for batting, with some assistance for spinners later on.

That early seam movement is the key phase. Teams that survive the new ball can score runs here, but teams that lose early wickets can quickly find themselves in trouble, as Australia did in Gqeberha and as both sides did in the famous Newlands Test of January 2024, when India beat South Africa in just 642 balls, the shortest completed Test in history. That pitch was later rated unsatisfactory by the ICC, and nobody expects a repeat, but it is a reminder of how lively this ground can be.

The Cape Town forecast for the Test week points to cool, cloudy conditions at around 13 degrees with wind and some chance of rain interruptions. Seamers should enjoy the first session of each day, and the team that wins the toss will have a genuine decision to make between batting first on a flattening pitch and bowling first in helpful morning conditions.

SA vs AUS 3rd Test probable playing XIs

South Africa probable XI: Aiden Markram, Ryan Rickelton (wk), David Bedingham, Temba Bavuma (c), Matthew Breetzke, Marques Ackerman, Wiaan Mulder, Marco Jansen, Simon Harmer, Kagiso Rabada, Dane Paterson.

Australia probable XI: Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Cameron Green, Beau Webster, Alex Carey (wk), Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland.

Key battles that will decide the Newlands decider

• Temba Bavuma vs Nathan Lyon: Bavuma’s 179 was the innings of the series so far. Lyon’s ability to tie him down and force a mistake could decide South Africa’s first innings.
• Kagiso Rabada vs Steve Smith: Rabada is back, fit and firing after his wickets at Gqeberha. Smith, returning to the ground where his career changed in 2018, needs a big score to answer South Africa’s momentum.
• Marco Jansen vs Marnus Labuschagne: Jansen’s bounce and left-arm angle troubled Australia’s top order in the second Test. Labuschagne’s ability to leave well and blunt the new ball will shape Australia’s first innings.
• Travis Head vs Simon Harmer: Head’s hundred in the follow-on showed his class, but Harmer’s off-spin on a wearing Newlands pitch could be South Africa’s late-game weapon.

SA vs AUS 3rd Test prediction: who will win?

This is a genuine 50-50 decider, but momentum and conditions lean one way. South Africa have just produced one of their great Test wins, Bavuma is in career-best form, Rabada and Jansen are firing, and Newlands has historically rewarded the home side’s seam attack. Australia, for all their quality, were bowled out for 99 in their last Test and must prove their top order can handle South African conditions for a full first innings.

Australia’s bounce-back ability should never be discounted. Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood form a world-class pace attack, Smith and Head can win a Test on their own, and a draw remains possible if the weather intervenes. But over five days at Newlands, the home side’s current form should count for more.

Prediction: South Africa to win the 3rd Test and take the series 2-1. Expect a result inside five days, with the team batting first needing at least 350 to feel safe, and South Africa’s seamers making the difference in the first innings.

SA vs AUS 3rd Test FAQs

When does the SA vs AUS 3rd Test start?

Tuesday, October 27, at 10:30 AM SAST (2:00 PM IST) at Newlands, Cape Town, running through Saturday, October 31.

What is the series score?

The three-match series is level at 1-1. Australia won the first Test in Durban by 214 runs, and South Africa won the second Test in Gqeberha by an innings and 31 runs.

Why is Anrich Nortje not playing?

Nortje has been ruled out of the decider with a groin injury suffered during the second Test, when he bowled only 3.3 overs before leaving the field.

Where can I watch SA vs AUS 3rd Test live in India?

FanCode will stream the Test live in India.